Sunday, September 9, 2007

The Truth Behind the Numbers


My two current obsessions are condo cruise ships and gambling (my mom will be so proud).

About a year or so ago, I learned about a cruise ship called Residensea's "The World". This ship travels the world taking about four years to circumnavigate the world, stopping for two or three days in this or that exotic or not so exotic port and then eventually visiting them all again. What makes it different is that people don't just go cruise on this ship for a week or two, they LIVE on it in large luxury condos.

I've been thinking about it again lately because I just saw a one hour special about it on the Travel Channel. Hey, for around two million dollars, you could have a residence on Residensea. Considering Bay Area housing prices, that isn't too bad...except then you have to figure in about another ten thousand per month in fees for the running of the ship and dock fees and all the other expenses that the residents share, although I think you get a couple thousand of that back as shipboard credit in places like the restaurants and the deli, maybe the spa?

They say you need to have a net worth of about ten million to be able to afford to live there. The cool thing is, the tv special showed this real estate couple in their 50s who still work, they just do it from their shipboard condo. They each have a desk with a computer and anything else they need, with a fabulous ocean view of course, and they just keep working. Woohoo. I would LOVE to do something like that in my 50s.

I kind of lost some interest in Residensea after learning last year that they don't accept pets. What? That blows. But this week I learned there is a new ship being constructed, due to be completed in 2010, called the Magellan, which IS going to take pets, if they are under 15 pounds (no jokes about Rodney please, he's not an ounce over 14 pounds!) on three of their decks. Now I really really really want a net worth of ten million!

Haha...I don't know...it could happen.

And that brings me to the gambling obsession...

Nonono...it's not what you think. I'm not running around being a gambling fool. I've just spent time studying gambling and reading statistical books that explain the odds of different games and how you can actually win. They basically all make me NOT want to gamble. At least not with any actual expectation of winning.

Here is a statistic I got from "The Lottery Book: The Truth Behind The Numbers": If you played the lottery twice a week (because generally that is how often they draw the numbers) and you played $100 each time, on AVERAGE it would take you 11,589 years to win the lottery. (so even if you lived 11,589 years and actually spend $200 a week on the lottery, chances are only 50% you'd actually win by then.) Hey, I want to live eleven thousand years!

Now it's been tenthousand years
man has cried a billion tears
For what he never knew - now man's reign is through.
But through eternal night the twinkling of starlight
So very far away - maybe it's only yesterday.

Heheh...I love me some Zagar and Evans. According to them, we won't be around to see that 50% chance of a payout anyway.

So, something with a little better odds...we went back to the racetrack Friday. I need to study horse racing a little more, because although we didn't do as bad as in the past, I think we could do better. And, by do better I mean not lose quite as much money. The problem is, if a horse/jockey is favored to win, you can't make much money on the bet, like twenty cents on the dollar. What fun is that? It's way more fun to play a long shot. I guess maybe I shouldn't complain, since we aren't actually betting MY money.

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